“The Math”

I just don’t get Hillary Clinton.  I really don’t.  Actually, I just don’t get the Clintons.  They seem really, really power hungry and I just a tad narcissistic.  That being said, why in the world is Hillary staying in the race at this point?  I understand the rationale behind getting a few fundraisers in to knock off some of the debt, but all the language the Clinton camp is using leads us to believe she’s still in for the long haul.  I just don’t get it; it’s virtually a mathematical possibility for her to win at this point. 

Let’s look at the numbers.

Despite what Hillary said last week, 2,025 delegates are needed to secure the nomination. 

According to the Associated Press, as it stands now Obama has a total of 1,847 delegates (1,591 pledged, 256 superdelegates) and Clinton has a total of 1,686 (1,423 pledged, 263 superdelegates).  So Obama needs less than 200 and Clinton needs over 300.  Around 270 superdelegates are yet to be decided and 217 delegates will be decided in the next 6 primaries.  Even if the delegates from Florida and Michigan were counted as is and even if most of the superdelegates went Clinton–both of which have been major talking points for her thus far–Obama would still have the lead.  She would need to win at least 66% of the remaining delegates in every contest to overtake his lead.  Neither of them will likely do that. 

I suspect by May 20 Obama will be very close to the magic 2025 number.  I’d like to think Clinton would concede at that point, but everything coming from her campaign lead us to believe she’s in until at least June3 perhaps even the convention.  I just don’t get it.  For what benefit?  The hope that chaos will ensue at the convention and the DNC will overturn the pledged numbers decided by the people?  If you plan on making history Mrs. Clinton that would be your chance.  A candidate with the delegate numbers has never been robbed of the nomination. 

In my mind this is already over.  Barack Obama is the presumptive democratic nominee and will face John McCain in November.  I think that’s most people’s understanding at this point.  Unfortunately, it seems Hillary Clinton may be the last to be apprised. 

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I’m having some pretty serious computer issues.  Hopefully they’ll be taken care of within the next few days and I’ll be up and running soon, but we all know how that goes. Blogging may be hit and miss for several days. 

May 8, 2008 | No comments

This seems appropriate after the saga of last night’s primaries.  So now I wonder how long Hillary will chose to fight this and potentially weaken Obama who is undoubtedly the presumptive nominee. Given that she canceled most public appearances today I hope sooner rather than later.

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Check here for realtime updates (in central standard time) as the results come in

06:01 PM CST: The polls in Indiana just closed. 30 minutes until the close in NC. Predictions across the board and early reporting precincts show Clinton up on Obama by a sizable margin. I suspect he’ll close that margin quite a bit. I’d really like to see this thing ended tonight. The only way I see that happening is if Obama sweeps the board by a pretty good margin in which case Clinton would likely throw in the towel. But I doubt that happens. I think Clinton will hold Indiana by 5 or less and Obama will claim North Carolina by about 5 maybe a little more.

06:30 PM CST: Polls just closed in NC and all networks are projecting Obama the winner. With 17% reporting in IN, Clinton is up on Obama 57-43.

06:35 PM CST: Karl Rove is on Fox News. I tried to watch for a few minutes just for fun, but I can’t bear it.

06:43 PM CST: There’s really nothing new with the exit polls, mostly the same stuff as in the past except that it appears Jeremiah Wright affected voters in both states thought we don’t know if that means people liked Obama’s response or disliked what was said. Indiana exit polls here, North Carolina exit polls here.

06:49 PM CST: Numbers in NC show Obama way ahead by over 30%.

07:00 PM CST: One hour after the polls closed in Indiana and with 34% reporting Clinton is still up on Obama 57-43. Obama still the “decisive” victor in NC though there are no hard numbers in yet. The headline at the Huffington Post: “Obama Routs Clinton in North Carolina…Presumptive Nominee?”

07:01 PM CST: Indiana has officially moved from being “too close to call” to “too early to call.”

07:08 PM CST: New numbers in from Indiana: Clinton 56, Obama 44 with 38% reporting.

07:10 PM CST: Hard numbers from NC: Obama 65, Clinton 34 with 5% reporting.

07:25 PM CST: According to Huffington, CBS has called Indiana for Clinton.

07:28 PM CST: Word from the Obama campaign via MSNBC: “The die is cast. May 20 is our D-day.”

07:30 PM CST: New numbers from Indiana: Clinton up by 10 (55-445) with 50% reporting.

07:39 PM CST: Numbers update. Indiana: Clinton 54, Obama 46, 52% reporting. North Carolina: Obama 63, Clinton 35, 15% reporting.

07:46 PM CST: Interesting exit polls in Indiana. Rush Limbaugh has been badgering Republicans all week to get and screw things up by voting for Clinton. The numbers are interesting. 11% of voters in Indiana were Republican and they virtually split the vote between Clinton and Obama, 52-48, while denoting the will vote Republican in the fall. However, of those voting Republicans the overwhelming majority believe Obama is more likely to beat McCain in the November.

08:01 PM CST: The numbers in Indiana are beginning to shift in Obama’s favor somewhat. With 67% reporting Clinton leads 53-47. Obama is preparing to speak to supporters in North Carolina.

08:09 PM CST: Numbers update. Indiana: Clinton 53, Obama 47, with 68% reporting. North Carolina: Obama 59, Clinton 39 with 28% reporting.

08:11 PM CST: Obama is on stage. Should be speaking shortly.

08:12 PM CST: Obama stepping to the microphone, saying the usual 50+ “Thank you’s.”

08:15 PM CST: Obama: “[We have a] victory in a “big state,” a swing state. And we stand less than 200 delegates away….”

08:19 PM CST: Obama: “When this primary season is over we will have to remember who we are…this fall we intend to march forward together, united.”

08:23 PM CST: Ok, I understand why they use personal stories of people they’ve met on the campaign trail. But seriously, after a while it just gets old. I really don’t think people enjoy being used.

08:30 PM CST: Obama: “We will end [the old politics] by telling the truth.”

08:36 PM CST: Obama just ended his speech. The gap in Indiana is closing even more here are the new numbers: with 73% reporting Clinton leads Obama 52-48. We’ve now moved back from “too early to call” to “too close to call.”

08:47 PM CST: Numbers update. North Carolina: Obama 56, Clinton 42 with 57% reporting. Indiana: Clinton 52, Obama 48 with 76% reporting.

09:03 PM CST: The numbers haven’t changed much word has it late precincts won’t be in for another hour. As it stands now in Indiana Clinton holds on to the 4 percent margin at 52-48 over Obama with 81% reporting. In NC Clinton has cut Obama’s lead a little, but not much to do anything the numbers are Obama 56, Clinton 42 with 66% reporting. Clinton is expecting to speak soon. I probably won’t cover it that much. Flipping back and forth to SVU.

09:21 PM CST: It looks like Lake County, IN is key at this point. It is expected to be Obama territory, but they have said the well not be releasing any results until maybe as late as 11:00 CST. The numbers stand the same percentage wise (52-48 Clinton), but Obama is slowly closing the gap.

09:28 PM CST: The numbers by percent in IN: Clinton 52%, Obama 48% with 85% of precincts reporting. Actual votes: Clinton, 546,204, Obama 503,274.

09:31 PM CST: Clinton is being introduced and is preparing to speak. What can she say at this point.

09:48 PM CST: Clinton is still speaking. Plugging her website for donations. AP: Clinton Lost Last Chance for Upset. The margin in the numbers in IN remains the same. Still waiting to hear from Lake County.

10:03 PM CST: Clinton just finished speaking and used the same sort of uniting language that Obama did. Hard numbers update. North Carolina: looks like this one is pretty much final with 91% reporting Obama over Clinton 56-42. Indiana: with 86% reporting Clinton holds on to the lead 52-48, actual votes are Clinton: 560,720, Obama: 521,415. Still waiting for Lake County and a few other Obama strongholds at the top of next hour. That should seal it off.

10:21 PM CST: Still waiting. Margins remain virtually the same. Should know more in about 40-45 minutes . Word has it around 11,000 absentee ballots in the northern counties are being counted. This is good for Obama as he tends to fair better with early deciders.

10:40 PM CST: Waiting, waiting, waiting. According to NBC there are about 220,000 outstanding ballots, most in Obama favored counties. This is about to get really interesting.

10:46 PM CST: The margin is narrowing. With 91% reporting in Indiana, Obama barely trails Clinton, 49-51.

11:03 PM CST: Top of the hour. Indiana still “too close to call.” Clinton is up by 2% and Obama is still closing the gap.

11:16 PM CST: Deadlocked again at 51-49 Clinton’s favor with 92% reporting. The margin is now less than 20,000 votes.

11:37 PM CST: Wow. It is getting really close. With 95% of the vote in Clinton leads by around 16,600 votes (51% to Obama’s 49%). The remained 5% is almost exclusively Lake county. Tim Russert on MSNBC: “We now know who the nominee is.

11:43 PM CST: Just in: Clinton has canceled her morning news show appearances reports the Huffington Post.

12:02 AM CST: Clinton as canceled her entire public schedule save a fundraiser tomorrow in Washington. She is barely holding on to the lead in Indiana. With 95% reporting she has a lead of less than 1.39% or 16,500 votes. We may see this into tomorrow morning.

12:11 AM CST: Ok, with 99% of the vote in Clinton is declared the “apparent winner” of Indiana with 51% of the vote to Obama’s 49% with a difference of about 22,000 votes.

12:17 AM CST: Final numbers for the night. North Carolina: with 99% reporting Obama wins 56-42.  Indiana: with 99% reporting at this point in time Clinton narrowly wins 51-49.  The actual delegate count is yet to be determined though I predict Obama will net around 13-15 effectively erasing Clinton’s Pennsylvania gain.  I think we can now use the words Barack Obama and presumptive nominee in the same sentence.  The question now is how much longer will Hillary allow this to go on?

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Part I | Part II | Part III

Jesus and taxes.  

I don’t know how many times I’ve heard people defend blind trust and obedience in their government by appealing to Jesus’ statement: “Render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s and to God what is God’s” (my paraphrase), which seems at the surface to be in support of the empire.  But that misses the larger picture.

Coins with Caesar’s image on them were all over the place in Jesus’ day and were inscribed with the statement: “Long live the Son of God!” According to C&H, “The coins were a visual sign that the entire economy belonged to Caesar and that without him everything would fall apart.” The Jews were taxed heavily by the Roman government both directly through Pilate and Herod and indirectly by the temple authorities.  C&H estimate that over 50% of the common persons income when to Caesar in some form of taxes. 

So here we are with Jesus in a rift with the authorities again.  They ask him if it is right to pay homage to the empire through taxes.  Here, C&H bring up an excellent point, one I hadn’t ever thought about, though it makes perfect sense: “…it was quite radical to speak of God and Caesar as two separate entities.”  By doing so Jesus raises the question to his hearers: Who is God, really? Because of course as mentioned in the previous posts Caesar was God. Period.  End of question.  So, to us on the surface level Jesus is supporting the tax system, but to his hearers he is questioning the very nature of God.

And Jesus’ hears would likely push that question to the next level: if Caesar is not God, then what actually belongs to Caesar?  If Caesar is not God, that is, not the ruler of the universe then what authority and what jurisdiction does he really have?  Caesar authority is illegitimate!  As C&H put it:

“Caesar could brand with his image, coins, crowns, and robes, which moths would eat and rust destroy.  But life and creation have God’s stamp on them.  Caesar could have his coins, but life is God’s.  Caesar had no right to take what is God’s.  We are also reminded that just as Caesar stamped his image of coins, God’s image is stamped on human beings.  Even Caesar had God’s stamp.  God made Caesar, and Caesar was not God. But the hearer was left to ponder the riddle of what was God’s and what was Caesar’s. No wonder Jesus often had to say, “Do you have ears to hear?”…God created Caesar, and God created the heavens and the earth. Caesar cannot do that. Give to Caesar what is Caesar’s. Once we’ve given to God what is God’s, there’s not much left for Caesar. And after Caesar returns to dust, God will continue to live and bring dust to life.”

Now, at this point I have to wonder how this works itself out today.  I live in the American empire. I sent my tax returns off about a month ago.  I got a refund.  To be honest, I’m very grateful for that refund because my wife and I will be moving across the country this summer and we need all the help we can get.  But that doesn’t change the fact that my refund money is imperial money.

I can think of two alternatives.  On the one hand, I can could opt out of the system all together and refuse to pay taxes or mail a return.  People do that.  And I respect them.  But I think the second alternative is more viable and effective.  I think it makes more of a statement.  A comment Matt Scott made on one of my posts about a month ago got me to thinking.   And then I read this book and I got to thinking even more.

What if next year when I have to pay taxes and render unto Uncle Sam what is his, what if I refuse to pay the percentage that funds the war and “national defense?”  What if I attached I cover letter to my return explaining that because my loyalty lies with God I refuse to participate in the killing innocent people.  What if instead I took the percentage that would go to fund war and I gave it all away?  

I can’t help, but wonder what might happen if I took Jesus at his word.  I can’t help but wonder what might happened if I believed him.

Better yet, what would happen if we believed him? What would happen if we were actually converted by the gospel and became cooperators and participators with God in subverting empire?

Am I crazy? Delusional? Too idealistic?

What do you think?

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